Lautermilch Latest Not to Run

According to the CBC, Eldon Lautermilch is the latest NDP cabinet minister to announce that he will not be seeking re-election when Calvert decides to call the next provincial election.

Lautermilch, who dismissed Saskatchewan's out-migration problem by saying that when people leave the province, "there's more left for the rest of us," has stated family reasons for not running for re-election after over 20 years in the legislature. However, his decision is also part of a trend which has seen a number of NDP cabinet ministers opt not to run in the upcoming election. Many of these are seasoned veterans of the party who surely can sense defeat on the horizon and would rather bow out than occupy the opposition seats in the provincial legislature. As well, the more this trend continues the worse it looks for Calvert and company.

Thomson Senses Imminent Defeat

Andrew Thomson has announced that he will not be running in the next election, as I had suspected. I also suspect that he will make a bid for the leadership of the party after Lorne loses the Fall Election and resigns as leader (although that might not happen right away but a year or so down the road. Thomson could then run in a by-election in Lorne's safe seat.


Bill Hutchinson must be sleeping easy these days, as the Sask Party surely has Regina South locked up now!

Will Atkinson be next to opt out?

One NDP in, One Out

As has been mentioned previously, Calvert has given his MLAs until May 17th to give notice as to whether or not they will seek re-election.

Today the Leader Post announced that Doreen Hamilton will not be seeking re-election. This is good news for the Saskatchewan Party; without the incumbant advantage, this seat, which Hamilton won by roughly 500 votes in 2003, will likely go to Christine Tell of the Sask Party. Of all the potential seats in Regina, this one was already most likely to be won by the Saskatchewan Party. With Tell's high profile and Hamilton's absence, it seems as close to a sure thing as a Regina seat can be for the Sask Party.

The Star Phoenix also reported today that Maynard Sonntag will be seeking the NDP nomination in Meadow Lake at the June nomination meeting. This was another very close riding and one that the Sask Party had had their eye on. However, the candidate they had originally nominated will not longer be running and they have yet to replace him. In any case, I'm sure it will be a very close fight, as it was in 2003.

It will be interesting to see what Andrew Thomson has to say in the next couple of weeks and even Pat Atkinson, who, after over 20 years in the legislature may decide to pack it in rather than sit on the opposition side again.

With Princess Anne's visit to Saskatchewan June 14, it is unlikely that Calvert will call a Spring election. Instead, it looks more like the fall. Would a summer election ever happen, though? It has happened elsewhere, like Nova Scotia in 2003 for instance. The last summer provincial election in Saskatchewan was on August 14, 1908 when Walter Scott won re-election over Frederick Haultain. For the next half a decade, elections were held every June until 1964, when it was held in April. Since then, elections have been in either the Spring or fall, with most popular months being June and October. It might be interesting to see a July election in Saskatchewan for the first time.

Spring Election?

With all that is going on with scandals in the NDP and the low polling numbers they are posting, it seems unlikely that Calvert would want an election anytime soon. However, with the prospect of a likely fall federal election and the risk of total devastation if he waits too long, going this spring might be the best option available to him. After all, with NDP arrogance as prevalent as it is, not to mention potentially precipitous, Lorne may think himself invincible. After all, he does like to cite that the NDP came from behind to win in 2003.

Calvert has given all MLAs a May 17th deadline to let him know if they plan to run in the next election. If they don't, will that be enough time to put a candidate in place for a Spring election in June? I've heard word that May 24th might be the magic date that Lorne finally calls an election. Could this be true?